China's Long Game: Xi's Calculated Risk In The Face Of US Pressure

Chloe Fitzgerald

5 min read

Post on Apr 25, 2025

4.9

Share

Economic Resilience and Technological Independence

Xi Jinping's vision for China centers on achieving economic independence and technological self-reliance, significantly reducing dependence on the US. This strategy involves several key initiatives:

• Made in China 2025: This ambitious plan aims to upgrade China's manufacturing capabilities, focusing on high-tech sectors like robotics, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy. The goal is to move beyond low-cost manufacturing and become a global leader in advanced technology production. Success would significantly reduce China's reliance on foreign imports and bolster its economic standing in global markets. However, it also invites criticism and potential countermeasures from other nations concerned about its implications for fair competition.

• Investment in Domestic Technology: China is heavily investing in developing its domestic technological capabilities, particularly in crucial areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), and semiconductor manufacturing. This involves substantial government funding, tax incentives, and support for domestic companies. The aim is to create a robust domestic technological ecosystem capable of competing with, and potentially surpassing, Western rivals. This includes fostering domestic talent and attracting overseas expertise.

• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): This massive infrastructure project spans across Asia, Africa, and Europe, aiming to enhance trade and connectivity. While boosting China's global economic influence, the BRI also secures access to vital resources and markets, further reducing its reliance on Western economies. However, concerns remain regarding the BRI’s debt sustainability for participating nations and its geopolitical implications.

• Challenges in Achieving Technological Independence: Despite substantial efforts, achieving complete technological independence remains a significant hurdle. China still relies heavily on foreign technology and talent in several key areas. The US, in particular, maintains a strong lead in areas such as semiconductor design and manufacturing, creating a critical vulnerability for China's technological ambitions. This necessitates a continued focus on innovation and overcoming technological bottlenecks.

Regional Assertion and Geopolitical Influence

China's increasingly assertive foreign policy is a key component of Xi's long game. This involves:

• Military Modernization: China has undertaken a massive military modernization program, significantly expanding its naval capabilities, air force, and cyber warfare capabilities. This allows China to project power further afield and assert its claims in disputed territories. This has raised concerns amongst its neighbors and the US, escalating geopolitical tensions.

• South China Sea Disputes: China's assertive actions in the South China Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and the assertion of its nine-dash line claim, have generated significant regional tensions. These actions challenge existing international norms and threaten regional stability. The potential for conflict remains a key concern.

• The Taiwan Issue: The unresolved status of Taiwan remains a major flashpoint in US-China relations. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. This represents a significant potential for military conflict with potentially devastating global consequences.

• Expanding Global Partnerships: China is actively forging economic and political partnerships with countries in Africa, Latin America, and other regions. This strategy aims to counter US influence and build a more multipolar global order, further enhancing its geopolitical standing. The BRI plays a key role in facilitating these partnerships.

Domestic Stability and Social Control

Maintaining domestic stability and social control is paramount to Xi's long-term goals. This involves:

• The Role of the CCP: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains tight control over all aspects of Chinese society, suppressing dissent and limiting political freedoms. This ensures the CCP's continued dominance and facilitates the implementation of Xi's policies.

• Economic Inequality and Social Unrest: Rapid economic growth has led to significant economic inequality, creating social tensions and unrest. The government faces the challenge of addressing this inequality while maintaining social stability.

• Managing a Diverse Population: Governing a vast and diverse population presents significant challenges. Maintaining social cohesion and addressing regional disparities requires careful management and policy adjustments.

• National Unity and Patriotism: Xi's emphasis on national unity and patriotism aims to foster a sense of shared identity and support for the CCP's leadership. This is a key element in maintaining social stability and countering potential dissent.

The Risks of Xi's Long Game

Xi Jinping's ambitious strategy carries significant risks:

• Economic Sanctions and Trade Wars: The US has imposed significant economic sanctions and tariffs on China, disrupting trade and investment flows. The potential for further escalation remains a significant threat to China's economic growth.

• Increased Military Tensions and the Risk of Conflict: China's assertive military posture has increased tensions in the South China Sea and with Taiwan, raising the risk of military conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences.

• Internal Social and Political Instability: While the CCP maintains tight control, underlying social and economic tensions could potentially lead to internal instability if not adequately addressed.

• International Isolation and Diminished Global Influence: China's assertive foreign policy could lead to international isolation and a diminished global influence, undermining the long-term objectives of Xi's strategy.

Conclusion

Xi Jinping's pursuit of China's long game involves significant calculated risks. His strategy, focusing on economic resilience, regional assertion, and domestic stability, aims to elevate China to global superpower status. However, the inherent risks – from escalating trade wars to military conflict – cannot be ignored. Understanding the complexities of China's long game, and Xi's calculated risks, is crucial for navigating the increasingly turbulent landscape of US-China relations. To learn more about the intricacies of this geopolitical struggle, continue exploring analyses of China's long game and Xi Jinping's leadership.