China's Xi: Raising The Stakes For A Prolonged US Confrontation

Chloe Fitzgerald

6 min read

Post on Apr 25, 2025

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Xi Jinping's Consolidation of Power and Assertive Foreign Policy

Xi Jinping's rise to power has been accompanied by a significant shift in China's foreign policy. His consolidation of authority, dismantling presidential term limits and centralizing power within the Communist Party, has emboldened a more assertive approach on the global stage. This marks a departure from Deng Xiaoping's "hide and bide" strategy, which prioritized economic growth over overt displays of power. Xi's vision of "national rejuvenation" is a key driver of this assertive foreign policy, fueling China's increasingly ambitious geopolitical goals.

• Xi's concentration of power: The abolition of presidential term limits in 2018 solidified Xi's position, granting him virtually unlimited power and enabling him to pursue long-term strategic objectives without the constraints of traditional leadership transitions. This has led to a more decisive and less cautious approach to foreign policy.

• Assertive foreign policy in action: This assertiveness manifests itself in various ways, from territorial disputes in the South China Sea to increasingly aggressive posturing towards Taiwan. China's Belt and Road Initiative, while presented as a cooperative infrastructure project, is also seen by some as a tool for expanding Chinese influence and projecting power globally.

• Examples of Xi's assertive actions:

  • Abolition of presidential term limits: This unprecedented move eliminated any checks on Xi's power, allowing him to pursue his agenda without the fear of term limits.
  • Increased military spending and modernization: Significant investments in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) have enhanced China's military capabilities and its ability to project power.
  • Expansion of China's influence through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI has been used to extend China's economic and political reach into regions across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
  • Crackdown on dissent and human rights concerns: The suppression of internal dissent and limitations on human rights have solidified Xi's control and fostered a climate of nationalistic fervor.

The Taiwan Issue: A Potential Flashpoint for Direct Conflict

Taiwan represents a potentially explosive flashpoint in the US-China relationship. China's increasingly forceful rhetoric and military posturing toward Taiwan, coupled with its claim of the island as a "renegade province," raises the risk of direct conflict. The US, through its policy of "strategic ambiguity," has maintained a commitment to Taiwan's defense, though the exact nature of that commitment remains unclear. This ambiguity itself adds to the complexity and risk of escalation.

• China's forceful rhetoric and military posturing: Increased military exercises near Taiwan, including simulated invasion scenarios, underscore China's determination to achieve reunification, by force if necessary.

• US commitment to Taiwan's defense: While the US hasn't explicitly promised military intervention, it continues to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons, strengthening its ability to resist a Chinese attack. However, the lack of a clear commitment could be interpreted as weakness by Beijing.

• Economic and geopolitical ramifications: A conflict over Taiwan would have devastating economic and geopolitical consequences, disrupting global supply chains, impacting international trade, and potentially sparking a wider regional and even global conflict.

• Potential for miscalculation and escalation: The heightened tensions and military posturing increase the risk of accidental escalation, particularly given the potential for miscalculation or misjudgment on either side.

Economic and Technological Competition: A New Cold War?

The economic and technological rivalry between the US and China has intensified significantly, leading some to describe it as a "new Cold War." This competition extends across various sectors, from trade and investment to the development of cutting-edge technologies like 5G and semiconductors. The resulting decoupling of the two economies, though not complete, is reshaping global supply chains and creating new geopolitical alliances.

• The ongoing trade war: The imposition of tariffs and trade restrictions has disrupted global supply chains and caused economic uncertainty, affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.

• Competition in emerging technologies: The race for technological dominance, particularly in 5G infrastructure and semiconductor technology, is crucial for both countries' economic and military power. This involves substantial investments in research and development, as well as efforts to limit access to key technologies for the opposing side.

• Potential for decoupling: The US and its allies are increasingly focused on "decoupling" from China's economy, reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing and technology to mitigate security risks and promote economic diversification.

• Examples of economic and technological competition:

  • Tariffs and trade disputes: The trade war initiated by the Trump administration, and subsequently moderated but not resolved, significantly impacted bilateral trade.
  • Restrictions on Chinese technology companies: The US has imposed restrictions and sanctions on Chinese companies like Huawei, citing national security concerns.
  • Investment in domestic technology sectors: Both countries have invested heavily in domestic technology industries to foster innovation and reduce reliance on foreign technologies.
  • Diversification of supply chains: Countries are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains, reducing their dependence on China for critical goods and technologies.

The South China Sea Dispute: Asserting Maritime Dominance

China's assertive actions in the South China Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and disregard for international law, have significantly increased regional tensions. This maritime dispute involves several Southeast Asian nations, each with overlapping claims in the region, and has implications for freedom of navigation and regional stability.

• China's island building and disregard for international law: China's construction of artificial islands and its assertion of expansive maritime claims, despite international court rulings against them, have significantly escalated tensions.

• Regional implications and responses: Other nations in the region, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, have voiced strong opposition to China's actions and are seeking to strengthen their alliances with other countries, including the US, to counter China's influence.

• Potential for increased naval confrontations: The increased military presence in the South China Sea raises the risk of accidental or intentional clashes between naval vessels, increasing the potential for escalation.

• Examples of China's actions in the South China Sea:

  • Construction of artificial islands: These islands have been fortified with military infrastructure, expanding China's reach and control in the region.
  • Disputes over maritime boundaries: China's claims overlap with those of neighboring countries, leading to frequent confrontations.
  • Increased naval presence: China's naval presence in the South China Sea has grown dramatically, asserting its control over the region.
  • Regional alliances and countermeasures: Other nations are forming alliances and engaging in joint military exercises to counter China's assertive behavior.

Conclusion

Xi Jinping's policies signify a profound shift in China's approach to global affairs, characterized by a willingness to engage in prolonged and multifaceted confrontation with the United States. The issues surrounding Taiwan, economic competition, and the South China Sea represent significant potential flashpoints for escalation. This prolonged confrontation, driven by Xi Jinping's consolidation of power and assertive foreign policy, has profound implications for global stability and the international order. Understanding Xi Jinping’s strategies and goals is vital for navigating the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. Continue to follow developments regarding Xi Jinping's leadership and the implications of the prolonged US-China confrontation. Stay informed about the latest news and analysis to understand this crucial relationship and its impact on global affairs.