Should You Ever Intentionally Walk Aaron Judge? A Baseball Strategy Guide

Chloe Fitzgerald

5 min read

Post on May 14, 2025

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The Case for Intentionally Walking Aaron Judge

The decision to intentionally walk Aaron Judge, despite his incredible power, isn't always irrational. There are specific scenarios where this seemingly counterintuitive move can be strategically sound.

Protecting Against the Big Inning

The primary argument for intentionally walking Judge centers on damage control. By giving him a free pass, you aim to minimize the potential damage he can inflict in a single at-bat.

• Minimize the damage of a single at-bat: A single at-bat with Judge loaded could easily result in a home run, clearing the bases and dramatically shifting the game's momentum. An intentional walk prevents this single, high-risk at-bat.
• Prevent Judge from driving in runners already on base: With runners on base, Judge's power becomes even more threatening. An intentional walk prevents him from driving in those runners with a single swing.
• Focus on facing a less powerful hitter following Judge: The intentional walk often sets up a more favorable matchup against a weaker hitter in the batting order.
• The risk-reward: avoid a potential grand slam: The most compelling reason to intentionally walk Judge is to avoid the catastrophic outcome of a grand slam. This single play can completely change the trajectory of the game.

Situational Context is Key

The decision to intentionally walk Judge is never made in a vacuum. Several factors must be considered:

• Bases loaded, less than two outs: This scenario significantly increases the potential for a grand slam, making the intentional walk a much more attractive option.
• Score differential: A significant lead might make the intentional walk more palatable, as the risk of giving up runs is lessened.
• Opponent's batting order: The hitters following Judge are crucial. If the next batter is equally powerful, the intentional walk might be less effective.
• Pitch count of the current pitcher: An overworked pitcher might benefit from the intentional walk, as it can save valuable pitches and potentially prevent further damage later in the game.

The Case Against Intentionally Walking Aaron Judge

Despite the arguments in favor, intentionally walking Judge carries significant risks.

The Statistical Argument

While the fear of a grand slam is valid, the statistics also tell a story.

• Judge's on-base percentage is still exceptionally high: Even with an intentional walk, Judge's OBP remains incredibly high, suggesting he'll still reach base frequently.
• Risking putting runners on base for less powerful hitters: This is a key counter-argument. You might be trading a single high-powered threat for multiple baserunners for the following batters.
• The potential for errors or wild pitches following the intentional walk: Any pitch is susceptible to errors, and a wild pitch after an intentional walk can just as easily lead to runs.
• Judge's ability to hit home runs with runners on base cannot be overlooked: Judge's power is not diminished when runners are already on base.

The Psychological Impact

Beyond the statistics, the psychological aspects cannot be ignored.

• Intentionally walking Judge can be perceived as a sign of weakness: Giving Judge a free pass can boost his confidence and demoralize your team.
• It can boost Judge’s confidence and potentially affect the team's morale: The perception of a manager surrendering to Judge's power can have unforeseen consequences.
• The impact of giving Judge a "free pass" on his mental game: A free pass might fuel Judge's determination and make him even more dangerous in subsequent at-bats.

Advanced Analytics and the Intentional Walk Decision

Modern baseball relies heavily on advanced analytics to inform strategic decisions.

Win Probability Added (WPA)

WPA helps assess the risk/reward of various in-game decisions, including intentional walks. By modeling the probability of winning with and without the intentional walk, managers can make a more data-driven choice. Different scenarios, like bases loaded vs. runners on first and second, drastically change the WPA calculation, making it an indispensable tool.

Expected Runs (ER)

ER models predict the expected number of runs scored based on various game states. By factoring in Judge's batting statistics and the performance of the following batters, ER models can help managers determine if the expected runs prevented by the intentional walk outweigh the expected runs scored if Judge bats and gets on base. Considering the entire lineup’s capabilities is crucial.

Utilizing Sabermetrics

More broadly, sabermetrics plays a significant role in evaluating players’ performance and helping managers make informed decisions. Analyzing advanced metrics like wOBA (weighted on-base average) and slugging percentage, alongside traditional statistics, paints a clearer picture of Judge's overall offensive threat.

Conclusion

The decision of whether or not to intentionally walk Aaron Judge is far from straightforward. While strategically walking him to avoid a potentially devastating home run with runners on base is understandable, the risk of putting runners on for other batters, alongside the psychological implications, must be carefully weighed. Ultimately, the best approach involves a thorough analysis of the specific game situation, utilizing advanced analytics like Win Probability Added and Expected Runs, and considering the overall composition of the opposing batting order. So, should you ever intentionally walk Aaron Judge? The answer, as with most strategic baseball decisions, is: it depends. Consider the factors discussed above, and make the choice that best aligns with your team's goals and the unique circumstances of the game. Mastering the complexities of intentionally walking Aaron Judge requires a nuanced understanding of baseball strategy and the willingness to embrace data-driven decision-making. Make informed decisions about whether to intentionally walk Aaron Judge based on the situation and advanced analytics.