UFC Vegas 106: Burns Vs. Morales Fight Card Odds & Predictions

Chloe Fitzgerald

4 min read

Post on May 18, 2025

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Burns vs. Morales – Main Event Breakdown

This main event clash between Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal is a battle of contrasting styles and seasoned veterans. Let's analyze each fighter individually before offering our prediction.

Gilbert Burns' Strengths and Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Exceptional Wrestling: Burns is a dominant wrestler, capable of taking opponents down at will and controlling them on the mat.
  • Dangerous Ground Game: His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is no mere decoration; he’s a submission threat throughout the fight.
  • Improved Striking: While primarily known for his grappling, Burns has significantly improved his striking accuracy and power in recent years.
• Weaknesses:
  • Striking Defense: While improved, his striking defense can still be exploited by accurate and powerful strikers.
  • Cardio in Later Rounds: In some past fights, Burns' cardio has been a factor in later rounds.
  • Susceptibility to Counter-Punching: His aggressive style makes him vulnerable to well-timed counter-punches.

Jorge Masvidal's Strengths and Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Elite Striking: Masvidal is renowned for his precise striking, devastating counter-punching ability, and knockout power. His "three-piece and a prayer" is legendary.
  • Experience and Fight IQ: Years of experience at the highest level of MMA have given him incredible fight IQ and adaptability.
  • Durable Chin: Masvidal has shown remarkable resilience and a granite chin, absorbing significant punishment.
• Weaknesses:
  • Takedown Defense: His takedown defense has been exposed against elite wrestlers in the past.
  • Ground Game: While his striking is world-class, his ground game is not his strength.
  • Age and Wear and Tear: Age might be a factor in his ability to withstand Burns' relentless pressure.

Odds Analysis and Prediction

At the time of writing, the odds favor Gilbert Burns. However, Masvidal's explosive power and ability to land fight-ending shots make him a dangerous underdog. We predict that Burns will win via decision, capitalizing on his superior wrestling and ground game to control the fight and outpoint Masvidal. However, a knockout victory for Masvidal remains a very real possibility, making this a must-watch main event. Check your preferred sportsbook (e.g., BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings) for the most up-to-date odds. (Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.)

Key Undercard Fights and Predictions

Several other exciting matchups are on the UFC Vegas 106 card. Here are a couple of key undercard bouts:

[Fight 1] – Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn

• Bo Nickal: Dominant wrestler, incredible takedown skills, explosive power. Weaknesses: Limited striking experience.
• Val Woodburn: Solid striker, good cardio, potential for upset if he can keep the fight standing.

Prediction: Nickal via TKO in the first round. His wrestling dominance is expected to overwhelm Woodburn.

[Fight 2] – Denise Gomes vs. Yazmin Jauregui

• Denise Gomes: Strong striker, good cardio, aggressive fighter. Weaknesses: Ground game is a question mark.
• Yazmin Jauregui: Solid grappler, experience at a high level. Weaknesses: Striking defense could be exploited.

Prediction: Gomes via decision. Her striking advantage should allow her to control the pace and outpoint Jauregui.

UFC Vegas 106 Betting Strategies and Tips

Understanding MMA Betting Odds

Familiarize yourself with different bet types: Moneyline (picking the winner), Over/Under (total rounds), and Prop Bets (specific events within the fight).

Responsible Gambling Practices

Remember to gamble responsibly. Set a budget, only bet what you can afford to lose, and seek help if you need it. Many resources are available online for problem gambling support.

Value Bets and Potential Upsets

Look for value bets—fights where the odds don't reflect the true likelihood of an outcome. Underdogs can provide high payoffs, but they usually present a high risk.

Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106

UFC Vegas 106 will be available on ESPN+ in the US and on various other streaming services and broadcasters internationally. Check your local listings for details.

Conclusion

UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales promises to be a night of thrilling action. Our predictions point towards a Burns victory in the main event, but Masvidal’s potential for a knockout win makes it unpredictable. Remember to analyze the fight card odds carefully and utilize responsible betting strategies. Don't miss the action! Get your UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales predictions in and enjoy the electrifying fights! Remember to gamble responsibly.